Friday Flash: Re-Ranking Big 10 Transfers
Who have been the best newcomers in 2022-23?
By my count there are 21 transfers featured in the rotation for Big Ten teams this season. Well, were. I’m including Michigan’s Jaelin Llewellyn in this post but he tore his ACL in December and didn’t actually appear in a league game. I’m also not including Dain Dainja from Illinois, as he joined the team and practiced with them last spring. I wanted to check in to see how they’d stack up, and thought it’d be useful to compared them against preseason expectations. To do this I’m using a highly scientific approach I call JEFF, or Judging Efficiency For ‘Fers. Okay, really I just averaged together their rankings from Jeff Borzello at ESPN and Jeff Goodman at Stadium. Here’s how that looks:
Approximately halfway through the season, here is my updated take:
1. Terrence Shannon, Jr., Illinois
Shannon made a statement early, almost single-handedly carrying Illinois to a win in Las Vegas over UCLA by making 8-of-9 three pointers. The outside shooting hasn’t been consistent — take out that game and he’s hitting just 27.8% of his attempts from distance — but he’s still been the league’s best transfer, shouldering the scoring load for the mercurial Illini. At 6-5 225 he’s been every bit the matchup nightmare and finisher that was promised: 59% on two pointers and he’s gotten to the line more times than anyone in the league except for Zach Edey.
In the two games since Skyy Clark left the team, Shannon has scored 24 and 25. In the preseason I wondered about the push-pull dynamic between the transfers and the freshmen. It’s now clear the way forward is relying on Shannon, Dainja, and Matthew Mayer. This is the first time Shannon has been the featured player on a team and he’s acing that test so far, especially since the three point shooting (5-21 in Big Ten play) is only going to improve.
2. Cam Spencer, Rutgers
He’s already hit two game-winning three pointers for the Scarlet Knights and is shooting 48% on triples, including 16-28 in Big Ten play. Steve Pikiell doesn’t make as much use of the transfer portal as other coaches but when he does it’s multi-year players to fill a clearly-needed role. Jacob Young brought speed to the backcourt. Aundre Hyatt committed when Ron Harper Jr. still had his name in the NBA draft pool and is now helping to replace some of the wing scoring load. And Cam Spencer gives Pikiell the type of shooter he’s never had at Rutgers.
It hasn’t just been the shooting, though. He’s fully bought into Pikiell’s defensive philosophy and his basketball instincts have led to a high steal rate that has held up better than I expected in conference play. The white-hot three point shooting is covering up a few warts — in the past three games he’s 1-15 inside the arc and has eight turnovers — but the shooting is that good and his all-around game is good enough to keep near the top of this list even if/when the regression monster shows up.
3. Matthew Mayer, Illinois
If nothing else, getting into a fight with Skyy Clark (allegedly) leading to Clark leaving the team might be enough of a contribution to rate this high considering how they’ve played since Clark left. I kid. It’s taken more time for Mayer to acclimate than his teammate Shannon but the recent results are encouraging. In the team’s first eight games, Mayer scored double figures once. In the next eight, he’s done it seven times. He’s gotten the job done defensively lately too, blocking nine shots in the past four games.
Four and a half seasons in it’s probably time to accept that the transcendence to superstardom isn’t happening but that’s okay. He can be the third or fourth banana on a team with a high ceiling. Nobody else has multiple wins over KenPom top 10 teams. With continued solid play on both ends from Mayer, they can get back to that level.
4. Jahmir Young, Maryland
Young has given the Terrapins about everything you could hope for from an up-transfer point guard. They got off to an 8-0 start before hitting a ditch and losing five straight games to high-majors. The true level of this team is somewhere in between. In his last game out he went for 30 against Ohio State: 7-13 on twos, 1-5 on threes, and 13-15 from the free throw line. For good measure he grabbed eleven rebounds, too. They’ll get some games like that from Young… but it’s not a formula for consistent success.
He also had 0 assists to 3 turnovers in that game, and that’s the underlying issue. Young can be a dynamic scorer but when the shots aren’t going down the offense gets really stuck and he’s not really good enough to facilitate winning basketball. It sounds like I’m dumping on him but I don’t mean to: a 32% usage rate from an up-transfer means your team has a ceiling. The best version of a theoretical Jahmir Young-led team would not see him with a 30-plus percent usage rate, but the best version of this Maryland team probably does. Let him keep cooking and hope the shooting turns around for Donta Scott and Donald Carey (currently shooting a combined 29% from three, and Scott is just 4-21 in Big Ten games).
5. Dawson Garcia, Minnesota
A timely post as Garcia went for 28 and 9 last night in an upset win in Columbus over the Buckeyes. Minnesota’s played much better since the calendar flipped to 2023 and Garcia has been a huge part of that. Against Michigan and Purdue in the December league games, he didn’t get to the free throw line once. Against Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, he combined for 22 attempts. He’s been more assertive on the glass too and if he continues to play with this physical edge the Gophers are going to score some more big upsets. You know who leads the Big Ten in two point field goal percentage? That’s right, Minnesota. It’s a small sample size obviously but the pieces are starting to meld, especially with Jamison Battle back. Still my pick for last place, but they’re catching up to the field.
6. Andrew Funk, Penn State
7. Sean McNeil, Ohio State
I’m grouping these two together because of their similar games as catch-and-shoot, uh, shooters. Funk has been the bigger surprise coming up from Patriot League where he was a 33% three point shooter, thriving in Micah Shrewsberry’s offense where he’s slotted next to Jalen Pickett and other threats in Seth Lundy and Myles Dread. He broke out of a mini-slump with a 7-for-12 performance against Indiana and is hitting 42% on the season. McNeil was a more known quantity coming from West Virginia and he’s been every bit the shooter they expected at 40% from deep. Neither of these players is doing much else but they aren’t being asked to, and there’s a lot of value in excelling in a defined role.
8. Ta’lon Cooper, Minnesota
Cooper was a good shooter on medium volume at Morehead State, but it’s safe to say nobody saw him hitting 24-of-43 as he’s doing so far. He’s been more of a do-everything guy for Minnesota than I expected: he’s had 7+ assists in seven games, and last night against Ohio State he grabbed 11 rebounds. He even has 7 blocks over the past three games. The shooting is going to come back down to earth, and he’s had some headscratchers like 1-6 against Chicago State and 2-8 against Cal Baptist. He’s also a bad free throw shooter and can be turnover-prone. But especially with Battle back in the lineup to take shot pressure off of him, Cooper should continue to be a nice surprise.
9. Sam Griesel, Nebraska
My worry with Griesel was that he was Just A Guy for three seasons at North Dakota State before breaking out as a senior. And now he’d be stepping up in competition. At Nebraska, I think those fears have mostly been validated — he’s been unable to get his shot going in Big Ten play — but he’s brought a steadiness to the offense that the Huskers have lacked with guys like Alonzo Verge, Cam Mack, and Teddy Allen running the show. Griesel isn’t going off-script and that lets players like Derrick Walker, Keisei Tominaga, and Juwan Gary play better. There’s probably at least some upside in the second half of the season: he’s currently 15-44 on twos and 3-12 on threes and it’s hard to imagine that getting worse. Assuming a moderate improvement there with continued stability and that’s a decent outcome for Nebraska. It’s not enough to get them to a postseason tournament, but maybe enough to keep Fred Hoiberg around.
10. Camren Wynter, Penn State
Wynter going to Penn State was an interesting decision because he was a pure point guard at Drexel and the Nittany Lions had Jalen Pickett on the roster. The offense last year with Pickett and Sessoms never clicked. But Wynter has proven to be more adaptable (and consistent) than Sessoms, and he’s another guy playing his role well. He just posted six assists against Indiana, but the way the Hoosiers were defending I think I could’ve done that. Wynter’s been able to facilitate when opponents key in on Pickett and he’s enough of a shooting threat himself (37% on threes) to play without the ball in his hands. This feels like the ideal role for Wynter at the power conference level. In this role he’s a plus, but asking him to run the show (at Penn State or anywhere else) would’ve been too ambitious.
11. Juwan Gary, Nebraska
He was a bench player at Alabama whose role might’ve diminished even further this year given the depth the top-5 Crimson Tide have. So he jumped over to Nebraska where he’s started every game. There wasn’t anything in his years at Alabama to suggest he’d be a quality shooter and that’s held true: he’s 15-57 (26.3%) on three pointers this year. But he’s otherwise been solid, scoring inside the arc, grabbing a few rebounds, and contributing to better team defense. Last year Nebraska was 178th in defense, this year they’re 40th. If Funk and McNeil are “stars in their role” guys, Gary is a notch below that, solid but unspectacular.
12. Max Klesmit, Wisconsin
That label would also apply to Klesmit, coming over from Wofford. The big surprise for me has been his defense: like Cam Spencer, he has good instincts that make him a good defender despite average length and athleticism. He’s been a good shooter but he’s a smaller part of Wisconsin’s offense than I anticipated. Andrew Funk has 126 three point attempts, Sean McNeil has 73… Klesmit as 45. Some of that’s been the emergency of Connor Essegian so I’m not saying Klesmit needs to do more than he is, I’m just noting it for the record. At Wofford he did have a bigger role, so if Wisconsin’s offense continues to struggle — they’re 94th in the country and 12th in the Big Ten — I wonder if any slight adjustments are made to involve Klesmit more.
13. Donald Carey, Maryland
This one is pretty easy. Like Funk and McNeil he was brought in to be a catch-and-shoot guy, but the shots just haven’t been falling. He was a 39% shooter in his career entering the year; he’s at just 29% for the Terrapins. You’ve got to imagine that improves, and Maryland doesn’t have the depth to play anyone over him, but until that happens there isn’t much else to say. He’s a fifth year player who started his career at Mount St. Mary’s, he’s not going to suddenly morph into a facilitator or top defender. In his last two games he’s 6-for-10, but those came right after an 0-for-8 stinker at Michigan.
14. Tanner Holden, Ohio State
Holden scored 37 points in Wright State’s tournament play-in game against Bryant. He’s scored 33 points total in his past eight games combined. He had a weird profile to begin with, a 6-6 200 pound guard(?)/wing who almost exclusively took his shots inside the paint. He’s been completely fine when he’s seen action but he’s only playing 15 minutes a night and is mostly just hanging out. Which is completely understandable when the other guys on the floor are Brice Sensabaugh, Justice Sueing, Bruce Thornton, and Zed Key (and maybe Sean McNeil!). So I don’t really have much to say about Holden. He’s just… been there.
15. Joey Baker, Michigan
Baker is just like Holden except that his shots come from outside the arc. He also plays around 15 minutes a night, and he’s taken roughly the same number of shots as Holden. Baker is 18-40 from three (wow!) and 3-16 from two (what?). He’s also kind of a turnstile on defense which explains why he doesn’t play more than he does. Again, it’s hard to have a profound #take when a guy is just a guy. We’re in the thick of the muddled middle.
16. Isaac Likekele, Ohio State
The flipside of Donald Carey is Likekele who Chris Holtmann wooed from Oklahoma State in an attempt to improve a defense that ranked 10th, 10th, and 10th in the conference the past few seasons. This year so far? Yeah, they’re ranked 10th. Likekele started the first eight games before taking a leave for personal/family reasons. He’s come off the bench in the five games since, but with the Buckeyes losing three in a row I wonder if Holtmann shakes things up and reinserts him into the lineup. Ohio State has plenty of offensive weapons to like with Likekele on the floor, but his numbers have taken a dip even from the low bar he set with Oklahoma State. He’s just 36% from the field, so it’s a dilemma. Does Ohio State just go balls-out and try to overwhelm everyone with their scoring, or do they play Likekele for some semblance of balance and hope that he can stop their defensive floor from sinking lower and lower?
17. David Jenkins Jr., Purdue
It feels like Jenkins was brought in almost as an afterthought. He committed late in the cycle in June and it seemed to be Matt Painter saying, yeah, I guess I could use a veteran guard. Jenkins, a high-usage player with stops at three schools, was an odd choice but to his credit he’s accepted his role coming off the bench behind a pair of freshmen. He was crucial in the Boilermakers’ win over Ohio State, hitting all three of his three pointers, but then played just 7 minutes with zero shot attempts in the next game against Penn State. He’s a 40% shotmaker from outside for his career but for this season the OSU game was an outlier; he’s just 6-30 otherwise. With Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer settled in it’s tough to imagine Jenkins’ role expanding as the season goes on, but the Purdue offense has been starved for three point shooting. Jenkins just hasn’t really delivered it outside of that one game.
18. Jaelin Llewellyn, Michigan
It’s perhaps a little unfair to put Llewellyn on this list at all given his injury, but it’s worth discussing since he was the #6 transfer in the preseason per JEFF. Before the injury, things were not going well. His shooting was a nightmare (5-27 outside the arc) and the Michigan backcourt was getting torn apart by opposing guards. Llewellyn’s season (probably) would have gotten better if he’d gotten to play the final 2/3rds of it, but in the sample size we have Young and Cooper (and Wynter if you want to count him) were acclimating to the power conference level far better than him. In the long run his injury may be a blessing to Michigan, as Kobe Bufkin has stepped up his game in his absence and freshman Dug McDaniel has been thrown into the fire but his progress even just from November to January is apparent.
19. Emmanuel Bandoumel, Nebraska
Bandoumel’s numbers at SMU were decent — not great, maybe not even “good,” but decent. But there was a curve he needed to be graded on playing along with one of the best point guards in the country in Kendric Davis. Without that sort of player at Nebraska, his numbers have tanked. Three point percentage way down (22.4%), turnovers way up (43 in 33 games at SMU last year compared to 36 in 17 games with Nebraska). He’s overexposed in this big of a role but Nebraska doesn’t have the depth to replace him because Keisei Tominaga would also be overexposed if he were playing as many minutes as Bandoumel.
20. Tydus Verhoeven, Northwestern
Verhoeven was nothing special at UTEP, but Northwestern is a tough place to get transfers into and they needed a big man so I at least understood it for Chris Collins. Verhoeven has been almost exactly what I figured: a space-eater who doesn’t do much to impact winning on either end. His shot rate is just 10% when he’s on the floor, he’s not grabbing that many rebounds, and they’re obviously not facilitating offense through him in the post. His job to set screens to free up Boo Buie and Chase Audige to go to work. With the emergence of Matthew Nicholson, who is proving to be a menace on the offensive glass, Verhoeven’s minutes will stay diminished.
21. Taurus Samuels, Minnesota
It’s no surprise that Samuels is down here. If we were rating them in the preseason he probably would’ve been the lowest then, too. He was an inefficient Ivy League point guard at Dartmouth but Minnesota needed the depth. Luckily for them Cooper has played well because Samuels, even despite some good three point shooting (he’s 5 for 13 in Big Ten games) has been about as expected. It’s interesting that Ben Johnson put him into the starting lineup but that’s mostly because freshman Jaden Henley was even worse. Samuels at least takes care of the ball. But he’s 3-for-18 on two point shots this season and whatever upside exists for that number to improve, there’s regression coming the other way with his three pointers.